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talent.io has observed a clear economic reaction to the arrival of COVID-19 in Europe through the volumes of new tech jobs being listed on job boards. These dropped markedly in early to mid-March, around calendar week 11, in all the locations we analysed. The following graphs show the development of the tech job market in the listed locations, from this first impact up until calendar week 20 (May).
We tracked the activity of the tech job market by looking at the volume of companies listing new tech jobs weekly on major job boards (Indeed, LinkedIn, Glassdoor). This will be referred to as 'activity' throughout the analysis.
Our study covers the period from the start of March, the start of lockdown measures throughout Europe, to mid-May (calendar weeks 10-20).
Collectively for all the locations in which talent.io analyses job board activity, since the crisis this activity has been fluctuating between around 50% and 80% of pre-COVID-19 levels, on a cycle of approximately two-weeks.
The rate of this cycle appears to be slowing. It is too early to predict whether this stabilisation will continue, whether activity will be able to climb steadily back to normal levels, or whether it may remain or settle for a significant period at lower levels than before. The average level of tech job creation has been at -37% lower than the YoY average.
After an initial impact to activity this rose briefly back to normal levels but has since gone on a downward trend. Tech job creation on job boards for Paris are following a two-week cyclical trend.
Activity in the Paris tech job market has been 11% lower than the current market average (see All tracked locations). At week 20 this was on an upward trend however there is a good chance it may drop again after week 21.
The trend of activity in major tech centres outside of Paris has been more volatile, with sharp changes in activity taking place on a weekly basis. Although at first impacted more severely than Paris, since week 15 it has no longer been on a downward trend.
The last four weeks have performed better on average than the average across all our locations. In particular weeks 19-20 have shown a strong upward trend taking activity nearly to normal levels. We expect a subsequent downturn but despite week-to-week volatility there is a possibility that the overall upward trend will continue over the coming weeks.
London experienced the sharpest initial drop in activity in weeks 11-12. After rising again nearly to normal levels in week 14, over the following three weeks activity subsided again to its lowest point at around 35% of normal levels. It is since been fluctuating on a weekly basis at greatly reduced levels, around 35% to around 50% of normal activity.
There is no overall upward or downward trend for the tech job market in London between weeks 16-20. On average activity over these weeks is reduced by 60%.
Berlin was initially not as heavily affected in comparison to other markets, however the second drop in activity around weeks 14-15 saw volumes of companies creating new tech jobs drop to below 50% of normal levels. Subsequently the weekly listings have been on a steep upward trend.
The last four weeks have averaged slightly above normal levels of activity. It is possible that as companies have acclimatised to the conditions in Berlin, they have also started to post tech positions which had been placed on hold at the start of the crisis.
Hamburg has experienced two sharp decreases in activity, both in weeks 11 and 14 without having been able to fully recover from the first. This brought job creation activity to a low point of around 35% of normal levels. By week 16 there was a sharp upturn however activity continued at reduced levels without showing a tendency towards recovery.
Week 16 to 20 displays a gentle downward trend in job creation activity, but nothing like the sharp decreases which occurred following week 11 in the Hamburg market. The Hamburg market appears to have stabilised if not recovered. Week 20 ended on an upward trend, it remains to be seen whether this will turn down again following the weekly cycle which has been present until this point, or whether the market will start a recovery.
Like Hamburg, Munich experienced two sharp drops in activity over weeks 11-12 and 14-15. The second was less extreme in Munich, and following this the market appears to have recovered better in Munich than in the majority of other locations.
Unlike the other markets which we have analysed, tech job creation activity in Munich has not been cycling up and down over weeks 16-20. It has maintained a more steady curve, turning upwards from week 17. On average this has been below the normal levels of activity, however as in Berlin in week 20 this has peaked slightly above the typical average.
Initially the tech job market in Amsterdam fell by around 50%, a similar impact to that in some of the other more affected cities which we analysed. However it then continued to drop without having any significant recovery in activity. The low point came in week 14, with activity at about 30% of normal levels. This then doubled over the next three weeks but plummeted again two weeks later. Week 20, which has come towards the middle of May, saw a huge spike in activity which went far higher even than the usual tech job creation activity in the market.
How do we read the huge upturn in activity?
We were also surprised. We checked our figures. It is what it seems to be. To try to understand the spike of tech jobs being created in the Amsterdam market we consulted one of our Amsterdam specialists, Alexandre L'Huillier, who gave us some insights on what has happened.
Since Amsterdam has shown greatly reduced levels of tech job creation over the weeks 11-19 even in comparison to other markets, it is possible that the activity spike shows tech hiring which had been put on hold over the previous weeks. On the 6th of May the Dutch Prime Minister presented a roadmap for easing out of lockdown measures. This is the point at which the spike we see occurs. It suggests that with light at the end of the tunnel, companies in Amsterdam have decided to start filling their high-priority vacancies, reopening their tech hiring.
Over the four calendar weeks 16-20 we observed a widespread stabilisation in the creation of tech jobs. In some cases there has even appeared an upward trend, with the overall activity appearing closest to normal in Berlin and Munich. London is so far struggling to recover and the most volatile is perhaps Amsterdam. It is possible that with the recent rise in activity and with companies willing to restart hiring, job creation for Amsterdam will resettle at near-normal levels, however with no consistent trend in the graph it is difficult to make meaningful predictions.undefined
We started recording Brussels in response to noticing the changes taking place in other markets. As such we were unable to get accurate figures for Belgium pre-dating the crisis, however from observing other graphs (in particular for major French tech centres other than Paris, which have shown a similar pattern) we can estimate that 'normal' levels would average around 30% higher than those in week 11, i.e. approximately 300 companies creating new tech positions weekly.
The creation of tech jobs in Brussels over weeks 16-20 have not stabilised. Week 20 does however display a strong increase in levels which has been mirrored in an upturn across multiple of the markets we are tracking - it remains to be seen whether this signals a return to overall higher levels of tech job creation activity for Belgium.
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